Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Friday, October 17, 2008

Why Obama (Almost) Can't Lose...

What I have retained from my undergrad and graduate stats courses is this: if you take a big enough look at the numbers, they very seldom lie.

Opinion polls are at best abstratct exercises in answering only the question of what people will answer when a pollster asks them a question. BUT- if you look at an aggrearate of results, time over time greater truth can be apparent.

The presidential polls in the U.S. show that Barack Obama has a near lock on the race. You can't possibly lose if poll, after poll says you have a lead and you are going to win. Barring the greatest of scandals and falls from grace he has this race locked. Look for yourself:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2008_United_States_presidential_election#Two-way_contest:_Barack_Obama_vs_John_McCain

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Federal Election Results Ruminations

Federal Election Returns


VOTER TURN OUT:
Canada (2008) - 58%


Afghanistan - 83.7%


We're ranked 88th among voter participation. Yay us...




Sunday, October 12, 2008

So... Another Minority Means What?

Here's a very neat article from the Globe and Mail. I don't think I agree with Jefferey Simpson about Quebec, but its good to see someone realizing that we're never going back to the way things were.

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

October 8, 2008 at 10:39 PM EDT

Canada's party politics is fractured. The days of two strong national parties are over, certainly temporarily, perhaps forever.

The rise of the Greens and the apparent permanence of the Bloc Québécois reflect the splintering of politics on linguistic or single-issue lines, something dreaded by those who saw national parties as indispensable links in a pluralistic, geographically huge, linguistically split country...

Rest of the article here.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Interesting Article about Sarah Palin

This article on Salon.com provides an interesting perspective on Sarah Palin's Alaska-ness or her role as an an Alaskan-American.

Personally, I think two things:
  1. Its obvious that this information brings into question her qualification to run as a VP or at least would be damaging if it was better known, but
  2. On the other hand, maybe someone who may not see herself as an American first running on the presidential ticket for one of the main two parties is a sign of progress for the U.S. In a country so committed to seeing itself in such monolithic terms. diversity of opinion, background, and identity couldn't hurt.

I shudder at any prospect of a McCain/Palin victory, but maybe there's a positive side to her candidacy other than just gender.

B.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

The Federal Election Sumarized

Okay- I think I have the federal election figured out. Here goes:

The Liberals may want my rifle,

The Tories may want my part of the social safety net,

The NDP may want me to pay more taxes,

The Greens may want my smog, and

The Bloc may not want anything from me.

B.